90-day holding period
PEADMethodology
Hold for ~90 trading days post earnings for full drift
Source: legalclarity.org
Antitrust risk M&A short
M&AShort
Short deals likely to face DOJ/FTC challenges
Source: encyclopedia
At-the-market offering pressure
Capital RaiseShort
Short stocks with active ATM offerings (constant supply)
Source: encyclopedia
Avoid binary single bet
Risk MgmtRisk
Don't bet entire portfolio on single binary event
Source: encyclopedia
Bankruptcy filing short
RestructuringShort
Short equity ahead of bankruptcy filing
Source: encyclopedia
Beat-by-X% threshold filter
PEADFilter
Filter for beats >5% of consensus for sufficient surprise
Source: legalclarity.org
Bidding war positioning
M&ALong
Position for multiple bidders driving target up
Source: encyclopedia
BoJ policy meeting
Macro EventsBoth
Trade BoJ Yield Curve Control changes
Source: encyclopedia
Breakthrough therapy designation
FDA EventsLong
Long biotech receiving breakthrough designation
Source: encyclopedia
Buyback announcement long
BuybackLong
Buy stocks announcing significant buyback
Source: encyclopedia
CEO-CFO buy combo
InsiderLong
C-suite buying signals stronger than directors
Source: encyclopedia
CPI report trade
Macro EventsBoth
Trade CPI release for inflation surprises
Source: encyclopedia
Class action overhang resolution
LitigationLong
Long stocks with diminished litigation risk
Source: encyclopedia
Concentration limits per event
Risk MgmtRisk
Cap exposure per event at 2-5% of capital
Source: encyclopedia
DEBUNKED PEAD large-cap
DEBUNKEDN/A
PEAD largely faded from large caps; doesn't work post-2001
Source: anderson-review.ucla.edu
DEBUNKED arbitraging known events
DEBUNKEDN/A
Heavily-known events often have no remaining edge
Source: encyclopedia
DEBUNKED earnings IV always crushes
DEBUNKEDN/A
IV doesn't always crush; sometimes vol expands further
Source: quantpedia.com
DEBUNKED earnings prediction services
DEBUNKEDN/A
Most earnings prediction services have no edge
Source: encyclopedia
Direct listing flow
IPOBoth
Trade direct listings without underwriter
Source: encyclopedia
Distressed exchange offer
RestructuringBoth
Trade distressed exchange offer dynamics
Source: encyclopedia
Diversify across events
Risk MgmtRisk
Run multiple events simultaneously to diversify
Source: encyclopedia
Dividend capture strategy
DividendLong
Buy ex-dividend; capture dividend if held 60+ days
Source: quantpedia.com
Dividend cut short
DividendShort
Short companies likely to cut dividends
Source: encyclopedia
Dividend yield trap
DividendShort
Short stocks with unsustainably high yields
Source: encyclopedia
ECB rate decision
Macro EventsBoth
Trade ECB monetary policy decisions
Source: encyclopedia
Earnings IV crush short straddle
Earnings SurpriseShort vol
Short ATM straddle right before earnings; profit on IV crush
Source: quantpedia.com
Earnings acceleration screen
Earnings MomentumLong
Filter for accelerating EPS growth (Q+Q-1+Q-2)
Source: encyclopedia
Earnings calendar spread
Earnings SurpriseLong vol
Long short-dated short long-dated for IV expansion
Source: quantpedia.com
Earnings revisions long
Earnings MomentumLong
Buy stocks with positive analyst revision momentum
Source: encyclopedia
Earnings sector rotation
Sector EventsBoth
Rotate to sectors with strongest earnings momentum
Source: encyclopedia
Election uncertainty hedge
Election EventsHedge
Buy puts pre-major elections
Source: encyclopedia
Equity carve-out arb
SpinoffBoth
Trade IPO of subsidiary vs parent stake
Source: encyclopedia
Estimate dispersion narrowing
Earnings MomentumLong
Tighter analyst estimate dispersion = higher quality earnings
Source: encyclopedia
Ex-dividend gap fade
DividendBoth
Trade post-ex-div gap (often partial recovery)
Source: encyclopedia
FDA AdCom panel meeting
FDA EventsBoth
Trade Advisory Committee Meeting recommendations
Source: encyclopedia
FDA Complete Response Letter short
FDA EventsShort
Short biotech likely to get CRL on filing
Source: encyclopedia
FDA approval long bet
FDA EventsLong
Buy biotech ahead of likely PDUFA approval date
Source: encyclopedia
FDA orphan drug designation
FDA EventsLong
Long biotech receiving orphan drug designation
Source: encyclopedia
FOMC announcement vol
Macro EventsLong vol
Long vol pre-FOMC for vol expansion
Source: quantpedia.com
FOMC pre-meeting drift
Macro EventsLong
Pre-FOMC drift well-documented (Lucca-Moench)
Source: quantpedia.com
Fed minutes release
Macro EventsBoth
Trade FOMC minutes 3 weeks post-meeting
Source: encyclopedia
Foreign regulator M&A risk
M&AShort
EU/China regulator risk pricing in higher break prob
Source: encyclopedia
Forward EPS estimate trend
Earnings MomentumLong
Long stocks with rising forward EPS estimates
Source: encyclopedia
GDP advance estimate
Macro EventsBoth
Trade quarterly advance GDP estimate
Source: encyclopedia
Greenblatt spinoff investing
SpinoffLong
Concentrated spinoff investing per Greenblatt's framework
Source: encyclopedia
Greenshoe option monitor
IPOMethodology
Track underwriter stabilization activity
Source: encyclopedia
High arbitrage-cost stock filter
PEADFilter
Filter for low-priced or low-following = stronger drift
Source: arc.hhs.se
Hostile bid speculation
M&ALong
Buy targets on hostile bids expecting higher counter
Source: encyclopedia
IPO first-day pop fade
IPOShort
Fade IPO first-day pop in subsequent days
Source: encyclopedia
IPO lockup expiration short
IPOShort
Short shortly before lockup expiration
Source: encyclopedia
IPO unlock period short
IPOShort
Short stocks at end of 6-month IPO lockup
Source: encyclopedia
Inauguration day rally fade
Election EventsBoth
Inauguration day pop often fades
Source: encyclopedia
Index deletion fade long
IndexLong
Buy stocks deleted from index after forced selling
Source: encyclopedia
Insider 10b5-1 plan changes
InsiderBias
Cancellations or modifications to insider trading plans
Source: encyclopedia
Insider cluster buying long
InsiderLong
Multiple insiders buying = high-conviction signal
Source: encyclopedia
Insider concentrated buying $1M+
InsiderLong
Filter for insider buys >$1M absolute value
Source: encyclopedia
Insider selling acceleration
InsiderShort
Multiple insiders selling at peak = warning
Source: encyclopedia
Iron condor weekly earnings
Earnings SurpriseShort vol
Weekly IC during earnings season
Source: quantpedia.com
Legal settlement fade
LitigationBoth
Trade post-settlement reactions
Source: encyclopedia
Low analyst coverage filter
PEADFilter
PEAD stronger in stocks with few analysts
Source: arc.hhs.se
M&A break short
M&AShort
Short M&A targets likely to face regulatory failure
Source: encyclopedia
M&A target spread arb
M&ALong
Buy M&A targets at spread to offer; collect on close
Source: encyclopedia
MSCI reclassification
IndexBoth
Trade MSCI EM/DM reclassifications
Source: encyclopedia
Modified Dutch auction tender
BuybackBoth
Trade companies running modified Dutch tenders
Source: encyclopedia
NFP non-farm payrolls
Macro EventsBoth
Trade Non-Farm Payrolls report
Source: encyclopedia
Nasdaq-100 special rebalance
IndexBoth
Trade special Nasdaq-100 rebalances
Source: encyclopedia
Open-market buyback monitoring
BuybackLong
Track open-market buyback execution for momentum
Source: encyclopedia
Overnight return earnings surprise
PEADMethodology
Use overnight return as earnings surprise proxy
Source: sciencedirect.com
PDUFA date positioning
FDA EventsBoth
Position around Prescription Drug User Fee Act dates
Source: encyclopedia
PEAD bottom-decile SUE short
PEAD ShortShort
Short stocks with bottom decile SUE; price drifts down
Source: legalclarity.org
PEAD decline post-2001
PEAD DeclineBias
PEAD largely faded from large caps post-decimalization
Source: anderson-review.ucla.edu
PEAD long-short portfolio
PEADBoth
Long top decile short bottom decile; 10-25% annual returns historically
Source: jkatz.caltech.edu
PEAD persists in microcaps
PEAD DeclineLong
PEAD still alive in microcap and illiquid names
Source: anderson-review.ucla.edu
PEAD top-decile SUE long
PEAD LongLong
Buy stocks with top decile Standardized Unexpected Earnings; ride 60-90 day drift
Source: legalclarity.org
PIPE deal selloff fade
Capital RaiseBoth
Trade post-PIPE announcement selloff/recovery
Source: encyclopedia
Parent post-spinoff long
SpinoffLong
Buy parent post-spinoff for sum-of-parts
Source: encyclopedia
Patent expiration cliff short
LitigationShort
Short pharma facing major patent cliff
Source: encyclopedia
Phase 3 readout binary
FDA EventsBoth
Trade binary clinical readouts (size for IV-implied)
Source: encyclopedia
Position size by event variance
Risk MgmtRisk
Size positions by historical event variance
Source: quantpedia.com
Post-emergence equity long
RestructuringLong
Buy equity post-emergence from bankruptcy
Source: encyclopedia
Pre-earnings IV expansion
Earnings SurpriseLong vol
Long ATM straddle 2 weeks pre-earnings
Source: quantpedia.com
Quarterly seasonal pattern
Earnings MomentumLong
Buy companies that consistently beat estimates each quarter
Source: encyclopedia
Quiet period expiration
IPOLong
Buy IPOs around analyst initiation post-quiet period
Source: encyclopedia
Reverse merger backdoor
RestructuringLong
Trade reverse merger backdoor IPO companies
Source: encyclopedia
Rights offering arb
Capital RaiseBoth
Trade rights offering subscription dynamics
Source: encyclopedia
Russell adds buy-and-hold
IndexLong
Buy stocks added to Russell 2000 on rebalance
Source: encyclopedia
S&P 500 inclusion drift
IndexLong
Buy stocks added to S&P 500 ahead of rebalance date
Source: encyclopedia
SUE earnings surprise calculation
PEADMethodology
(Actual EPS - Consensus) / Std Dev EPS = Standardized Surprise
Source: legalclarity.org
Sanctions impact short
Sector EventsShort
Short companies tied to sanctioned countries
Source: encyclopedia
Secondary offering short
Capital RaiseShort
Short companies issuing new equity (dilution)
Source: encyclopedia
Sector winners/losers election
Election EventsBoth
Position sectors based on election outcomes
Source: encyclopedia
Small-cap PEAD persistence
PEADLong
PEAD stronger in small caps; arbitrage costs higher
Source: arc.hhs.se
Special dividend long
DividendLong
Buy stocks announcing special dividends
Source: encyclopedia
Spinoff sub long
SpinoffLong
Buy newly-issued spin co; institutional dump creates value
Source: encyclopedia
Stock-for-stock pair trade
M&ABoth
Long target short acquirer at exchange ratio
Source: encyclopedia
Strangle short pre-earnings
Earnings SurpriseShort vol
Short OTM strangle pre-earnings; close after IV crush
Source: quantpedia.com
Tariff impact stock-specific
LitigationShort
Short companies with high tariff exposure
Source: encyclopedia
Tariff round impact
Sector EventsBias
Trade sectors most/least affected by tariffs
Source: encyclopedia
Tracking stock arbitrage
SpinoffBoth
Trade tracking stocks vs underlying ownership
Source: encyclopedia
Whisper number vs consensus
Earnings MomentumBoth
Trade gap between buy-side whisper and sell-side consensus
Source: encyclopedia
An encyclopedia of publicly documented strategies for education. YCAI does not recommend, endorse, or trade any of these. Not investment advice.