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Prediction strategies

100 documented Prediction strategies from our reference catalogue of 20,000 — names, logic and sources. Catalogued here, tested honestly, and — usually — buried in the graveyard.

$10K min event mention markets
KalshiMulti
Kalshi mention markets earnings calls
Source: Bloomberg
$2B Polymarket-ICE deal
IndustryLong
Polymarket Intercontinental Exchange $2B deal
Source: Bloomberg
$850 cap per market
PredictItMulti
PredictIt $850 cap per market per side
Source: encyclopedia
11% probability fed sports ban
IndustryMulti
Fed sports prediction ban priced 11% prob
Source: Sport
14 sports coverage
PolymarketLong
Polymarket 14 sports coverage
Source: Covers
17 sports thousands contracts
KalshiLong
Kalshi 17 sports thousands contracts
Source: Covers
Account limit/restrict winners
RiskShort
Sportsbooks restrict consistent winners
Source: encyclopedia
Approved 2021 first event futures
KalshiMulti
Kalshi 2021 first CFTC-approved event futures
Source: encyclopedia
April court ruled NJ can't bar Kalshi
IndustryMulti
Federal court ruled NJ can't bar Kalshi April
Source: CNBC
Arbitrage between books
StrategiesLong
Arbitrage between sportsbooks
Source: encyclopedia
Augur Forecast Foundation
OtherMulti
Augur DeFi prediction Forecast Foundation
Source: encyclopedia
Bet size manage Kelly
RiskLong
Bet size mgmt Kelly criterion
Source: encyclopedia
BetMGM partnership
Sports BettingMulti
BetMGM Entain + MGM JV
Source: encyclopedia
BetRivers regional
Sports Books SitesMulti
BetRivers regional sportsbook
Source: encyclopedia
Bipartisan Merkley bill
IndustryMulti
Merkley/Raskin elections war bet bill
Source: CNBC
Bonus abuse signup bonuses
StrategiesLong
Bonus abuse signup bonuses
Source: encyclopedia
CFTC reg federal Kalshi
IndustryMulti
CFTC regulates Kalshi federal level
Source: Stanford
Cabinet member departure
CategoriesMulti
Cabinet first to leave office
Source: Bloomberg
Caesars sportsbook digital
Sports BettingMulti
Caesars sportsbook digital
Source: encyclopedia
California Florida largest holdouts
Sports BettingMulti
CA + FL largest non-legal sports betting
Source: encyclopedia
Churchill Downs IP rights
Sports BettingMulti
Churchill Downs IHA IP rights Derby
Source: Sport
Closing line value tracking
StrategiesLong
Closing line value (CLV) tracking key
Source: encyclopedia
Court case outcomes
CategoriesMulti
Court case outcomes (Musk OpenAI)
Source: Bloomberg
Cross-platform arb Kalshi-Poly
StrategyLong
Cross-platform arb Kalshi vs Polymarket
Source: encyclopedia
Crypto price contracts
CategoriesMulti
Crypto price level contracts
Source: Covers
DOJ ended Polymarket inv July 2025
IndustryMulti
DOJ ended Polymarket investigation July 2025
Source: Bloomberg
Dozen+ states battling courts
IndustryMulti
12+ states battling Kalshi/Polymarket courts
Source: Sport
DraftKings DKNG public
Sports BettingLong
DraftKings DKNG publicly traded
Source: encyclopedia
DraftKings ~30% market share US
Sports BettingLong
DraftKings ~30% US share
Source: encyclopedia
Election contracts approved Oct 2024
KalshiMulti
Election contracts CFTC approved Oct 2024
Source: encyclopedia
Election uncertainty hedge
StrategiesMulti
Election outcome uncertainty hedge
Source: encyclopedia
Entertainment Oscars Spotify
CategoriesMulti
Entertainment Oscars/Spotify/Billboard
Source: Covers
FanDuel Flutter parent
Sports BettingLong
FanDuel Flutter Entertainment parent
Source: encyclopedia
FanDuel ~40% market share US
Sports BettingLong
FanDuel ~40% US sports betting share
Source: encyclopedia
FanDuel/DKNG combined 70%+
Sports BettingLong
FanDuel + DKNG combined 70%+ market
Source: encyclopedia
Federal regulated CFTC
KalshiLong
Kalshi federal CFTC regulated approach
Source: Bloomberg
Financial markets contracts
CategoriesMulti
Will Fed cut/SP500 close above X type
Source: Covers
Florida tribal Hard Rock 2023
Sports BettingMulti
Florida tribal Hard Rock 2023 launched
Source: encyclopedia
Founded 2020
KalshiMulti
Kalshi founded 2020
Source: encyclopedia
Founded 2020 crypto
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket founded 2020 crypto-native
Source: encyclopedia
Geopolitics war strikes
CategoriesMulti
Geopolitical war strikes contracts
Source: Bloomberg
Hard Rock Bet Florida
Sports Books SitesMulti
Hard Rock Bet Florida tribal
Source: encyclopedia
Hedging same outcome
StrategiesLong
Hedging same outcome multiple sites
Source: encyclopedia
Hollywood Stock Exchange
OtherMulti
Hollywood Stock Exchange play money films
Source: encyclopedia
Insider info abuse risk
StrategyShort
Insider info abuse risk biggest
Source: Stanford
Insider trading cases growing
IndustryShort
Insider trading cases growing 2026
Source: NPR
Jurisdiction risk play
StrategiesMulti
Jurisdiction risk regulation evolving
Source: Stanford
Kalshi 3 candidates fined
IndustryMulti
Kalshi suspended/fined 3 candidates April 2026
Source: CNBC
Kalshi NYC HQ
KalshiMulti
Kalshi NYC headquartered
Source: encyclopedia
Kalshi Trump Jr advisor
IndustryMulti
Kalshi Donald Trump Jr advisor Jan 2025
Source: Bloomberg
Kalshi+Polymarket primary venues
IndustryMulti
Kalshi+Polymarket primary online event mkts
Source: Stanford
Kentucky Derby IHA blocked
Sports BettingShort
Kentucky Derby IHA blocked Kalshi/Polymarket
Source: Sport
Liquidity provision MM rebates
StrategyIncome
Market making liquidity provision rebates
Source: encyclopedia
Live betting in-game edge
StrategiesLong
Live in-game betting edge fast info
Source: encyclopedia
Long-shot favorite bias
StrategyMulti
Long-shot favorite bias correction
Source: encyclopedia
Macro event hedge
StrategiesMulti
Macro event prediction market hedge
Source: encyclopedia
Manifold play money
OtherMulti
Manifold Markets play money
Source: encyclopedia
Matched betting low risk
StrategiesLong
Matched betting risk-free promo
Source: encyclopedia
Metaculus forecasting
OtherMulti
Metaculus forecasting community no money
Source: encyclopedia
MrBeast editor insider case
IndustryMulti
Kalshi MrBeast editor insider case
Source: NPR
Murphy v NCAA 2018 SCOTUS
Sports BettingMulti
Murphy v NCAA 2018 PASPA struck down
Source: encyclopedia
NHL+NFL trademark partnerships
KalshiLong
Kalshi NHL+NFL partnerships trademark
Source: Sport
NJ gambling laws challenged
IndustryMulti
NJ challenged - federal preempts
Source: CNBC
No KYC anonymous risk
PolymarketShort
Polymarket no KYC - leak risk
Source: Stanford
Pinnacle no-limit sharp
Sports Books SitesLong
Pinnacle no-limit sharp odds
Source: encyclopedia
Politics elections major
CategoriesMulti
Politics + elections major category
Source: Covers
Polling leakage edge
StrategyLong
Polling leak edge prior to release
Source: NPR
Polygon blockchain
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket Polygon blockchain
Source: encyclopedia
Polymarket $300K Biden pardons
IndustryMulti
Polymarket $300K Biden pardons trader
Source: NPR
Polymarket $553K Khamenei March
IndustryMulti
Polymarket $553K Khamenei strike Mar 2026
Source: NPR
Polymarket UMA arb tokens
StrategiesMulti
Polymarket UMA arb on resolution disputes
Source: encyclopedia
Polymarket US cleared Nov 2025
IndustryMulti
Polymarket US cleared Nov 2025 launched Dec
Source: Bloomberg
Polymarket crypto-native
IndustryMulti
Polymarket crypto-native global
Source: Stanford
Polymarket crypto-native USDC
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket USDC settlement crypto-native
Source: Stanford
Predict Markets Are Gambling Act
IndustryMulti
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act bill
Source: Sport
PredictIt nonprofit research
PredictItMulti
PredictIt CFTC nonprofit 2014
Source: NPR
Religious second coming
CategoriesMulti
Jesus Christ return before 2027
Source: Bloomberg
Resolution risk if ambiguous
StrategyShort
Resolution risk if ambiguous wording
Source: encyclopedia
STOP Corrupt Bets Act
IndustryMulti
STOP Corrupt Bets Act bill
Source: Sport
Shayne Coplan founder/CEO
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket Shayne Coplan founder/CEO
Source: Bloomberg
Sports 38% Polymarket
IndustryMulti
Sports 38% Polymarket vol
Source: CNBC
Sports 80%+ Kalshi 100% Poly US
IndustryLong
Sports 80%+ Kalshi 100% Polymarket US
Source: Bloomberg
Sports 90% Kalshi vol
IndustryLong
Sports ~90% Kalshi vol Year 2026
Source: CNBC
Sports majority of vol
CategoriesLong
Sports majority of vol both platforms
Source: Covers
Sportsbook price arb
StrategyLong
Sportsbook vs prediction market arb
Source: encyclopedia
Stat-driven NFL/NBA models
StrategiesLong
Stat-driven NFL/NBA models alpha
Source: encyclopedia
Tarek Mansour CEO
KalshiMulti
Kalshi Tarek Mansour CEO/co-founder
Source: Bloomberg
Tech earnings buzzwords
CategoriesMulti
Tech earnings calls buzzword markets
Source: Bloomberg
UMA dispute risk
StrategyShort
UMA optimistic dispute risk Polymarket
Source: encyclopedia
UMA oracle resolution
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket UMA optimistic oracle resolution
Source: encyclopedia
US ban lifted Nov 2025
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket US ban lifted Nov 2025
Source: Bloomberg
US legal sports betting 38 states+
Sports BettingMulti
US legal sports betting 38 states+
Source: encyclopedia
US soldier $400K Maduro arrest
IndustryMulti
US soldier arrested Polymarket $400K Maduro
Source: Stanford
US sports-only currently
PolymarketMulti
Polymarket US offers sports-only Dec 2025
Source: Bloomberg
Value betting model edge
StrategiesLong
Value betting where model > book odds
Source: encyclopedia
Weather contracts
CategoriesMulti
Weather contracts (temperature etc)
Source: Bloomberg
Wins Wellington research basis
PredictItMulti
PredictIt Wellington research basis
Source: encyclopedia
Wound down 2024
PredictItMulti
PredictIt wound down 2024 CFTC
Source: encyclopedia
WynnBet retreating
Sports Books SitesMulti
WynnBet retreating from US sportsbook
Source: encyclopedia
bet365 international leader
Sports Books SitesMulti
bet365 UK international leader
Source: encyclopedia

An encyclopedia of publicly documented strategies for education. YCAI does not recommend, endorse, or trade any of these. Not investment advice.