NAAIMNAAIM divergence with price
Price new high but NAAIM exposure dropping = warning
Source: traderlion.com
Put-Call RatioIndex P/C ratio (institutional hedge)
High index P/C reflects hedging not directional bear
Source: cmcmarkets.com
Fear & GreedF&G crossing 50 trend confirm
F&G crossing 50 from below confirms upside trend
Source: cmcmarkets.com
Fear & GreedMulti-component F&G analysis
Decompose F&G into 7 components for nuanced signal
Source: cmcmarkets.com
BreadthAdvance-decline line confirmation
A/D line should confirm price trend; divergence = warning
Source: cmcmarkets.com
BreadthA/D divergence at new highs
Price new high without A/D new high = bearish divergence
Source: cmcmarkets.com
BreadthNew highs vs new lows ratio
New 52w highs > 52w lows confirms uptrend health
Source: cmcmarkets.com
Breadth% above 50-day MA breadth
>80% of stocks above 50DMA = overbought; <20% = oversold
Source: cmcmarkets.com
Breadth% above 200-day MA breadth
>80% above 200DMA = overbought trend; <20% = oversold
Source: cmcmarkets.com
BreadthMcClellan Oscillator extreme
MO above +60 = overbought; below -60 = oversold short-term
Source: aaii.com
BreadthMcClellan Summation Index trend
MSI rising = breadth expanding; falling = contracting
Source: aaii.com
BreadthZweig Breadth Thrust signal
Breadth surge from <40% to >61.5% in 10 days = explosive bull
Source: aaii.com
BreadthTRIN (Arms Index) extreme
TRIN > 2.0 = panic selling; < 0.5 = exuberance
Source: cmcmarkets.com
VolumeDown-volume to up-volume ratio
Persistent down-volume dominance signals distribution
Source: aaii.com
VolumeUp-day volume surge
Big-volume up days within base = institutional accumulation
Source: aaii.com
VolumeVolume dry-up consolidation
Pre-breakout volume contraction signals tightness
Source: aaii.com
VolatilityVIX of VIX (VVIX) extreme
VVIX >150 = panic in vol-of-vol; long equity reversion
Source: quantpedia.com
VolatilitySKEW index extreme
High SKEW = institutional tail-risk hedging; warning
Source: quantpedia.com
VolatilityVIX futures contango/backwardation
Persistent contango = calm; backwardation = stress
Source: quantpedia.com
Fund FlowsBond fund flow risk-off
Bond inflows reflect risk-off positioning
Source: aaii.com
Fund FlowsEM equity fund flows
Track EM fund flows for regional risk-on/off
Source: aaii.com
Fund FlowsSector ETF rotation flows
Sector ETF flows reveal institutional rotation
Source: aaii.com
PositioningCFTC TFF financial positioning
Track asset manager and leveraged fund positioning
Source: quantpedia.com
PositioningDealer gamma exposure (GEX)
Positive GEX = mean reverting; negative GEX = momentum amplifier
Source: quantpedia.com
PositioningCharm and vanna flows
Dealer hedging flows from charm/vanna predict EOM/EOQ moves
Source: quantpedia.com
BehavioralDisposition effect avoidance
Cut losers; let winners run; reverse common retail bias
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralAnchoring bias warning
Don't anchor to purchase price; reassess thesis
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralRecency bias awareness
Don't extrapolate recent trend indefinitely
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralConfirmation bias check
Actively seek disconfirming evidence for thesis
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralLoss aversion sizing
Position size to avoid emotional decisions on losers
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralMental accounting hedge
Treat all dollars equal; no 'house money' bias
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralOverconfidence cap
Cap position size regardless of conviction
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralFOMO suppression
Wait for setup; never chase post-breakout
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralRevenge trade prohibition
Never increase size to recoup losses
Source: aaii.com
BehavioralTrading journal review
Document thesis entry and exit; review weekly for bias
Source: aaii.com
ConfluenceSentiment + breadth + price divergence
Sentiment extreme + breadth divergence + price reversal = trade
Source: traderlion.com
ApplicationTactical asset allocation by sentiment
Increase equity exposure on sentiment extremes (low) reduce on highs
Source: aaii.com
ApplicationSentiment-aware position sizing
Size positions inversely to sentiment extreme
Source: aaii.com
ApplicationSentiment-based hedging timing
Buy puts when sentiment extremely bullish; sell puts when extremely bearish
Source: aaii.com
ApplicationSector rotation by sector sentiment
Rotate to most-hated sectors with insider buying
Source: aaii.com
5-day MA P/C extreme
Put-Call RatioBoth
Smooth daily P/C with 5-day MA for cleaner extreme reading
Source: cmcmarkets.com
AAII + NAAIM + F&G all extreme
ConfluenceBoth
Triple-extreme alignment in retail+institutional+composite
Source: traderlion.com
AAII 4-week MA smoothing
AAIIBoth
Smooth weekly noise with 4-week moving average for cleaner extremes
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
AAII bearish >50% long equities
AAIILong
Buy when AAII bearish exceeds 50% (extreme pessimism); 60% follow-through historically positive
Source: traderlion.com
AAII bull-bear spread extreme
AAIIBoth
Bull minus Bear spread >40 = top warning; <-30 = bottom signal
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
AAII bullish 2 std dev above mean
AAIIShort
Extraordinary bullish reading; mediocre 6m forward returns
Source: aaii.com
AAII bullish 2 std dev below mean
AAIILong
Extraordinary bearish reading; +14% 6m avg gain historically
Source: aaii.com
AAII bullish >50% short equities
AAIIShort
Reduce/short when AAII bullish exceeds 50% (extreme optimism)
Source: aaii.com
Activist 13D filings
Smart MoneyLong
Buy stocks getting activist 13D filings
Source: aaii.com
Bloomberg fear gauge composite
News FlowBoth
Composite news sentiment via Bloomberg Terminal as filter
Source: aaii.com
BofA Bull-Bear indicator
Sentiment SurveysBoth
BofA monthly composite of fund flows positioning credit etc.
Source: aaii.com
Bond futures speculator
PositioningBoth
Extreme spec positioning in 10y/30y futures = signal
Source: quantpedia.com
CBOE total P/C <0.7 short
Put-Call RatioShort
Heavy call buying signals greed; short for mean reversion
Source: cmcmarkets.com
CBOE total P/C >1.2 long
Put-Call RatioLong
Heavy put buying signals fear; long for mean reversion
Source: cmcmarkets.com
CEO/CFO purchases
InsiderLong
C-suite purchases more meaningful than director buys
Source: aaii.com
CNN F&G <25 long (extreme fear)
Fear & GreedLong
Fear & Greed below 25 = panic selling; buy on capitulation
Source: cmcmarkets.com
CNN F&G >75 short (extreme greed)
Fear & GreedShort
Fear & Greed above 75 = euphoria; sell or hedge
Source: cmcmarkets.com
COT commercial hedger positioning
PositioningBias
Commercials are smart money in commodity futures
Source: quantpedia.com
COT speculator positioning extreme
PositioningBoth
Extreme spec positioning often precedes reversal
Source: quantpedia.com
China NBS PMI sentiment
Macro SentimentBoth
Chinese PMI as Asian growth sentiment
Source: aaii.com
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Sentiment SurveysBoth
High Confidence + low jobs gap historically peaks markets
Source: aaii.com
Currency speculator extremes
PositioningBoth
Extreme net long/short FX positions = reversal warning
Source: quantpedia.com
Equity fund flows extreme inflow
Fund FlowsShort
Massive inflows at peak signal late-cycle buying
Source: aaii.com
Equity fund flows extreme outflow
Fund FlowsLong
Massive outflows during crash signal capitulation
Source: aaii.com
Equity-only P/C extremes
Put-Call RatioBoth
Equity-only P/C strips out hedging noise; cleaner signal
Source: cmcmarkets.com
Front-running magazine covers
DEBUNKEDN/A
By the time it's a magazine cover the move is largely done
Source: aaii.com
Google Trends recession
News FlowBoth
Spikes in 'recession' searches near market bottoms
Source: traderlion.com
Hedge fund 13F reports
Smart MoneyLong bias
Track 13F filings for hedge fund positioning
Source: aaii.com
II Bull-Bear ratio extreme high
Investors IntelligenceShort
II newsletter Bull/Bear ratio >3.0 historically marks tops
Source: aaii.com
II Bull-Bear ratio extreme low
Investors IntelligenceLong
II Bull/Bear ratio <1.0 historically marks bottoms
Source: aaii.com
Insider buying-to-selling ratio
InsiderLong
Heavy insider buying signals smart-money confidence
Source: aaii.com
Insider cluster buying
InsiderLong
Multiple insiders buying simultaneously = high-conviction signal
Source: aaii.com
Insider selling acceleration
InsiderShort
Multiple insiders selling at peak = warning
Source: aaii.com
Investor Intelligence Bull-Bear
Sentiment SurveysBoth
Newsletter writers' sentiment with multi-decade history
Source: aaii.com
Magazine cover indicator
News FlowShort
Cover stories on bull/bear themes often mark inflection points
Source: aaii.com
Margin debt vs SPX divergence
Retail FlowShort
Falling margin debt while SPX rallies = leadership concern
Source: traderlion.com
Multi-indicator extreme cluster
ConfluenceBoth
3+ sentiment indicators at extremes simultaneously = high-conviction
Source: traderlion.com
NAAIM exposure <30% long
NAAIMLong
Active managers underexposed signals capitulation; buy
Source: traderlion.com
NAAIM exposure >100% short
NAAIMShort
Active managers leveraged long >100% signals euphoria
Source: traderlion.com
P/C + VIX + AAII bottom signal
ConfluenceLong
Multiple sentiment indicators bottoming = high-prob long entry
Source: traderlion.com
Reddit subreddit mention rank
Social MediaShort
Top-ranked Reddit subreddit names often peak
Source: traderlion.com
Retail call option buying spike
Retail FlowShort
Spike in retail single-stock calls historically peaks before reversal
Source: traderlion.com
Robinhood top 100 holdings divergence
Retail FlowShort
Stocks at top of Robinhood holdings often peak; fade
Source: traderlion.com
Sentiment without price confirmation
DEBUNKEDN/A
Sentiment extreme alone without price action confirmation is unreliable
Source: traderlion.com
Sentix German investor confidence
Macro SentimentBoth
Sentix as alternative European sentiment gauge
Source: aaii.com
Single-indicator sentiment trading
DEBUNKEDN/A
Trading on single sentiment indicator without confluence loses long-term
Source: traderlion.com
StockTwits sentiment scoring
Social MediaBoth
StockTwits message sentiment as crowd-pulse indicator
Source: traderlion.com
Survey-based timing on intraday
DEBUNKEDN/A
Weekly surveys cannot time intraday moves; use for swing+
Source: aaii.com
Tankan Japan sentiment
Macro SentimentBoth
Bank of Japan Tankan survey for Japanese conditions
Source: aaii.com
Twitter alpha for daily trading
DEBUNKEDN/A
Twitter sentiment alone is too noisy for daily strategies
Source: traderlion.com
Twitter/X mentions surge
Social MediaShort
Spike in retail mentions on X often precedes reversal
Source: traderlion.com
Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Sentiment SurveysBoth
Michigan Sentiment extremes = contrarian signal
Source: aaii.com
VIX <12 complacency short
VolatilityShort
VIX below 12 historically precedes vol expansion
Source: cmcmarkets.com
VIX >35 panic long
VolatilityLong
VIX above 35 historically marks capitulation; long equities
Source: cmcmarkets.com
VIX term structure inversion
VolatilityLong
VIX > VIX3M (inverted) signals panic; bottom signal
Source: quantpedia.com
Vanda retail flow tracker
Retail FlowBoth
Vanda data shows retail buying climaxes near tops
Source: traderlion.com
Volume climax bottom
VolumeLong
Capitulation volume at lows often marks bottoms
Source: aaii.com
WSB sentiment index
Social MediaShort
WallStreetBets sentiment as contrarian flag (post-GME)
Source: traderlion.com
Yale CCS Crash Confidence
Sentiment SurveysBoth
Yale Crash Confidence Index reflects valuation concerns
Source: aaii.com
ZEW German Investor Sentiment
Macro SentimentBoth
German ZEW survey for European macro sentiment
Source: aaii.com
An encyclopedia of publicly documented strategies for education. YCAI does not recommend, endorse, or trade any of these. Not investment advice.